Structural recovery in the shipping industry
Related stocks: COSCO Haikong 601919 0.00%
Earnings Forecast and Valuation of Shipping Port Segment We mentioned in the shipping industry tracking report "Road to Recovery, Upward Resilience" released on November 13, 2016 that the containerized market and dry bulk market are on the way to recovery. On the road, shipowners are generally more pessimistic, reinvestment has fallen sharply, and supply growth has fallen to a low level. At the demand level, the market is expected to be lower, but as demand for replenishment of stocks in Europe and the United States strengthens and China's exports recover, shipping demand is gradually surpassing expectations. The rebound in demand, the increase in consolidation and consolidation, and the reversal of dry bulk capacity utilization will be important conditions for the upward expansion of freight rates in 2017.
In the medium and long term, the industry has overcapacity, fierce competition, and large downward pressure, and the overall valuation is too expensive. Maintain the industry's "neutral" rating. Investors can continue to focus on port integration, Xiong'an New District, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Themed investment opportunities.
Economic decline, demand from shipping ports is lower than expected; supply from shipping ports is higher than expected; oil prices have fluctuated significantly; port integration effects and progress are lower than expected;